Whether you’ve already filled out your bracket, you’re stuck on a bunch of games, or you haven’t even started yet, here are a few things to keep in mind that could prove influential in any of the 63 games that we will all be watching over the next few weeks.
1. History – History tells us that at least one 11, 12, or 13 seed is heading to the second round. Often, some of the best matchups come tournament time are in fact the 12-5 games, so pay extra attention to them. In terms of 11’s with a chance, look to Missouri or Gonzaga to be in close games against Cincy and St. John’s respectively. Marquette is a perennial underachiever in March, and Georgetown should be able to handle the USC/VCU winner. Any of the 12’s could win, but I think Richmond has the most legitimate shot against Vanderbilt. As for 13’s, Oakland is very intriguing. They have an experienced, senior-laden lineup and they drew a baby-faced Texas team that could buckle under the tournament pressure.
For anyone who thinks putting all four #1’s through to Houston is the best strategy, remember that has only happened once, in 2008, so don’t count on it happening like that again this year, especially with the overall parity that exists in the 68 team field.
2. Emotion – I know everyone wants to take their favorite team, myself included, but if you’re serious about winning your pool, you can’t let that get in your way. Sure, I would love for the Tar Heels to make a run all the way to the Final Four, but you’re going to be cheering for your team anyway, so do your best to objectively determine where they might encounter a tough opponent and bow out. I did a blind, bias-free, pros/cons only bracket this afternoon that did not list the team names, and I actually chose Washington to beat UNC in Round 2. Try it here, you’ll be surprised with the results! http://graphicsweb.wsj.com/documents/BLINDFOLDBRACKETS1103/index.html
2. Emotion – I know everyone wants to take their favorite team, myself included, but if you’re serious about winning your pool, you can’t let that get in your way. Sure, I would love for the Tar Heels to make a run all the way to the Final Four, but you’re going to be cheering for your team anyway, so do your best to objectively determine where they might encounter a tough opponent and bow out. I did a blind, bias-free, pros/cons only bracket this afternoon that did not list the team names, and I actually chose Washington to beat UNC in Round 2. Try it here, you’ll be surprised with the results! http://graphicsweb.wsj.com/documents/BLINDFOLDBRACKETS1103/index.html
3. Matchups – Don’t be naïve and think that the calibre of individual talent will always be the deciding factor! Style of play has a huge influence on the outcome of games, so look at the matchups. If a favorite has a tough time on the boards or causing turnovers and their underdog opponent does either well, that game could be on its way to upset city. Same thing if the underdog loves to get out on the fast break and run all day, while the favorite has a bigger, slower lineup that simply cannot keep up. There are all kinds of potential matchup problems for high seeds that are not used to seeing the style of offense or defense run by mid-major teams that come from smaller conferences, so be careful!
4. Location, Location, Location – There are always situations where teams are given higher seeds, but then pay for it as they have to travel across the country to play their 3rd/4th round games. This year is no exception, as Duke got the 4th top-seed, meaning they start in Charlotte, but for the Sweet 16/Elite 8 they travel to Anaheim. That’s tough, and will really limit the amount of supporters that can make the trip with the team. Those games will take place at a truly neutral site, and those crowds generally elect to cheer for the underdog. While it may not pose any problem, the intimidation factor for a team playing Duke at the Honda Center in California is far less than the intimidation factor for any team having to play Duke in Charlotte or at Cameron Indoor Stadium, plain and simple.
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Video Break! Some of the Best March Madness Moments:
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5. The Charity Stripe is NEVER Generous – Pressure during March Madness is unprecedented, no regular season games or conference tournaments can compare. Games are played in bigger arenas than most teams are used to (especially for mid-majors and small conference teams), and there are millions watching on national TV. Add to that the fact that for several athletes and teams alike, this could be their only chance in the tournament. Now, imagine being one of those kids and try to make the first half of a 1-and-1 late in a close game. “This ain’t your home gym with 2 coaches and the cheerleaders watching anymore, you’re at the big dance kid, so good luck with that." Needless to say, free throws are huge, and are the deciding factor in a lot of games. Think about Memphis in the final a couple years ago, they were firing up bricks left, right, and centre. It makes a difference, if not THE difference, so pay attention to free throw stats, they only get magnified in March.
6. Beware the 3 Ball – In order to highlight the importance of the three point shot, look no further than the successful Cornell or Davidson teams from years past. Of course Davidson had Steph Curry shooting the lights out, but both teams relied heavily on game plans that focused on taking a lot of high percentage three balls. This is a strategy shared by the vast majority of lower seeded schools (save those who have a dominating inside presence), and it can make for a very frustrating afternoon or evening for a top seed if their opponents get hot from the land beyond. Moreover, anyone who employs a zone defense can get burned by sharpshooters, and adapting in-game could pose further matchup issues. Long story short, pay special attention to three point shooting and defending statistics when selecting potential dark horses. Among this year’s mid and lower seeds, Wofford (.407), Richmond (.400), Arizona (.399), and George Mason (.397) shoot it the best from downtown.
7. Experience – Having tournament experience is a huge asset for any player, team, or coach, so do not discount it. Freshman-laden teams can struggle under the bright lights while those made-up primarily of seniors know what the big dance is all about. Of course, you can look at it the other way around too. Seniors know they may be playing the last meaningful games of their careers and that adds a lot of pressure, but the freshmen (or Diaper Dandies as Dicky V likes to say) and sophomores are enjoying the moment and soaking up the attention. That said, the team that emerges as National Champion will almost surely be a good mix of both enthusiastic youth and composed experience. One such example is Ohio State, which helps to explain their #1 overall seed.
8. Coaching – Finally, a quick word on coaching. There are some NCAA coaches that simply make their teams better throughout the season, case in point Roy Williams and his young Tar Heel group that improved exponentially as the season progressed. That momentum can definitely carry a team to a perhaps unexpected Final Four appearance. Also, there are coaches like Michigan State’s Tom Izzo that always know how to maximize their team’s chances in any given game. Regardless of seed (in the Spartans’ case, a #10), expert strategizing can lead to upsets, and Izzo has been the main cause of many of his teams performing exceptionally when it mattered most in March.
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Well, those are 8 things to consider when finalizing your brackets. With any luck mine won’t be busted by the end of the first slate of games!
My Key Upset Specials: Oakland, Clemson, Richmond, and Marquette in the 1st Round, Old Dominion over Pitt in Round 2, and Michigan over Duke in Round 2!
Cheers, and enjoy the Madness!